Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best
Penguin Group US, 2011/03/17 - 320 ページ
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."
-Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works
We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.
Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
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Review: Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anywayユーザー レビュー - rabbitprincess - Goodreads
Dan Gardner is a columnist with the Ottawa Citizen and one of my favourites. He's skeptical, logical and writes well. All of these characteristics are in evidence in this book, which takes a cold hard ... レビュー全文を読む
Review: Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anywayユーザー レビュー - Patrick Carroll - Goodreads
Not quite up to the same level of Risk which led me to this book. Even if you don't accept all his examples it does a very good job of showing hindsight bias and selective memory. I don't think it ... レビュー全文を読む