General deductions from the The converse of this will of course be true. In those countries which are subject to periodical sicknesses, the increase of population, or the excess of births above the deaths, will be greater in the intervals of these periods than is usual in countries not so much subject to these diseases. If Turkey and Egypt have been nearly stationary in their average population for the last century, in the intervals of their periodical plagues, the births must have exceeded the deaths in a much greater proportion than in such countries as France and England. It is for these reasons that no estimates of future population or depopulation, formed from any existing rate of increase or decrease, can be depended upon. Sir William Petty calculated that in the year 1800 the city of London would contain five millions three hundred and fifty nine thousand' inhabitants, instead of which it does not now contain a fifth part of that number. And Mr. Eton has lately prophesied the extinction of the population of the Turkish empire in another century; an event which will, as certainly, fail of taking place. If 1 Political Arithmetic, p. 17. 2 Survey of the Turkish Empire, c. vii. p. 281. preceding view of Society. America were to continue increasing at the same rate as at present, for the next 150 years, her population would exceed the population of China; but though prophecies are dangerous I will venture to say, that such an increase will not take place in that time, though it may perhaps in five or six hundred years. Europe was, without doubt, formerly more subject to plagues and wasting epidemics than at present, and this will account, in great measure, for the greater proportion of births to deaths in former times, mentioned by many authors, as it has always been a common practice to estimate these proportions from too short periods, and generally to reject the years of plague as accidental. The highest average proportion of births to deaths in England may be considered as about 12 to 10, or 120 to 100. The proportion in France for ten years, ending in 1780, was about 115 to 100. Though these proportions have undoubtedly varied at different periods during the last century, yet we have reason to think that they have not varied in any very considerable degree; 'Necker de l'Administration des Finances, tom. i. c. ix. p. 225. General deductions from the and it will appear therefore, that the population of France and England has accommodated itself more nearly to the average produce of each country than many other states. The operation of the preventive check, wars, the silent though certain destruction of life in large towns and manufactories, and the close habitations and insufficient food of many of the poor, prevent popula tion from outrunning the means of subsistence and if I may use an expression, which certainly at first appears strange, supersede the necessity of great and ravaging epidemics to destroy what is redundant. If a wasting plague were to sweep off two millions in England, and six millions in France, it cannot be doubted that after the inhabitants had recovered from the dreadful shock, the proportion of births to deaths would rise much above the usual average in either country during the last century.' In New Jersey the proportion of births to deaths on an average of 7 years, ending 1743, was 300 to 100. In France and England the highest average proportion cannot be reckoned at more than This remark has been, to a certain degree, verified of late in France, by the increase of births which has taken place since the revolution. preceding view of Society. 120 to 100. Great and astonishing as this difference is, we ought not to be so wonder-struck at it, as to attribute it to the miraculous interposition of heaven. The causes of it are not remote, latent, and mysterious, but near us, round about us, and open to the investigation of every inquiring mind. It accords with the most liberal spirit of philosophy to believe, that not a stone can fall or plant rise without the immediate agency of divine power. But we know from experience, that these operations of what we call nature have been conducted almost invariably according to fixed laws. And since the world began the causes of population and depopulation have been probably as constant as any of the laws of nature with which we are acquainted. The passion between the sexes has appeared in every age to be so nearly the same, that it may always be considered, in algebraic language, as a given quantity. The great law of necessity which prevents population from increasing in any country beyond the food which it can either produce or acquire, is a law so open to our view, so obvious and evident to our understandings that we cannot for a moment doubt it. The different modes which nature takes to repress a redundant population, do not appear indeed to us so certain and re General deductions from the gular; but though we cannot always predict the mode we may with certainty predict the fact. If the proportion of the births to the deaths for a few years indicates an increase of numbers much beyond the proportional increased or acquired food of the country, we may be perfectly certain, that unless an emigration take place the deaths will shortly exceed the births, and that the increase that had been observed for a few years cannot be the real average increase of the population of the country. If there were no other depopulating causes, and if the preventive check did not operate, very strongly, every country would, without doubt, be subject to periodical plagues and famines. The only true criterion of a real and permanent increase in the population of any country is the increase of the means of subsistence. But even this criterion is subject to some slight variations, which however are completely open to our observation. In some countries population seems to have been forced; that is, the people have been habituated by degrees to live almost upon the smallest possible quantity of food. There must have been periods in such countries when population increased permanently without an increase in the means of subsistence. China, India, and the countries possessed by the Bedoween Arabs, as we have |