Profiting From Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings
Simon and Schuster, 2012/12/25 - 288 ページ
What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity.
Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty.
More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
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Navigating the Future
About Paul J H Schoemaker
ambiguity ambiguity aversion Amos Tversky analysis approach Arnitz assess Behavior Business School Press C. K. Prahalad challenge Chapter company’s competitive complex consumer core competencies corporate create creative Credit Union customers Daniel Kahneman decision develop discussed dynamic monitoring economic emerging employees Enron example explore firm flexibility focus focused frame frameworks future Gary Hamel global Harvard Business School hindsight bias Hughes Aircraft identify implementation industry influence diagram insights internal Internet investment Journal Key Success Factors key uncertainties KSFs leaders learning look Miami Herald models Monsanto multiple organization organization’s organizational overconfidence P. J. H. Schoemaker Paul J. H. Schoemaker people’s percent perspective pharmaceutical planning process portfolio potential profit from uncertainty resources and capabilities risk management Royal Dutch/Shell scenario planning shift simulation strategic options strategic vision thinking trends uncertain York