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in proportion. Let him search where such records are kept, and calculate how many vessels have been wrecked, in situations where no assistance could possibly be rendered by any boat, with all their crews, which might have been saved by these means. Can the life-boat be brought to act in certain situations with out the assistance of Captain Manby's apparatus? Is not the life-boat cumbersome, and not locomotive without much labour? Has not the expence of a general adoption of the life-boat been shrunk from by the nation, and has not the same reason prevented its adoption by private subscription? It is not my intention to detract from the merit of Mr. Greathead's invention, as great praise is due to him; but these are facts, a denial of which cannot be supported. On the other hand, the apparatus produced by Cap. tain Manby, is attended with inconsiderable expence; can be applied with certainty and success by any one who will attend to the directions given; may easily be transported from place to place; and, if stationed at intervals of a few miles on the redoubtable parts of the coast, would be ready at every emergency on either side. Let these facts be taken into consideration, and it will readily be thought with me, that Captain Manby is entitled to the sole merit, and well deserves to be rewarded as the inventor and perfecter, of an apparatus so unambiguously equal to the important occasion for which it may daily be expected to be called into use; and which we trust his majesty's government will, without further delay, carry into fall and general

effect.

Norwich.

HUMANITAS.

I shall confirm part of my statement by the following letter:

SIR,

Roebuck, Yarmouth-roads, January 6th, 1811. I beg leave to state for the information of the Lords Commissioners of the Admiralty, that, during my attendance on the beach yes. terday morning, in assisting for the preservation of H. M. gun-brig, Attack, a merchant brig was driven ashore at the same place, and her crew, seven in number, were in my presence, rescued from the rigging of the vessel, and apparent certain destruction, in a most admirable manner, by means of a boat drawn from the shore by a line, that,

affixed to a shot, was thrown over the vessel from a mortar, under the personal superintendence of Captain Manby. And this morning a galiot, having also come on shore on the beach, her crew, consisting of four EngJishmen and five foreigners, must inevitably have perished, but for the prompt assis

tance of Captain Manby, with his apparatus, and by whose efforts, and by the same means as those employed yesterday, the whole crew were, in my presence, rescued from their most perilous situation, one of them, however, is since dead from his sufferings, in consequence of the severity of the weather. I take the liberty of making this statement to their lordships, conceiving it my duty, in common justice to Captain Manby, whose personal exertions are always prompt in the cause of humanity, and in the present instances have been so happily efficient. John Wilson Croker, esq. R. CURRY.

To the Editor of the Monthly Magazine.

SIR,

Tin close corporations, and close HE principle of mental deterioration committees and clubs, is a necessary consequence of the love of power and domination natural to man. He who is invested with power will always exert himself to retain it, and will seldom abandon or relinquish it, if he possess the means of retaining it by cunning or contrivance. Hence, no member of a close corporation or committee will ever admit any one to become a member, who, he thinks, is likely to dispute his own ascendency, or contest his opinions or influence. In such bodies, therefore, errors and prejudices are embodied and perpetuated; and philosophy labours in vain in making discoveries in science and morals, while such bodies have influence on the destinies of mankind.

The first step then towards the ra dical regeneration, amelioration, and improvement, of society in all countries, is to lay open all close corporations, as the corrupt and convenient tools of power, as the willing instruments of mies of all discovery and improvement. mental vassalage, and the bigotted ene

This evil ought to be one of the first objects for the correction of a patriotic parliament, and the principle ought to be steadily resisted in every ramification of society from the board of government, through the committees of companies, down to the directors of benefit-clubs. Nothing like a close committee, empowered to fill up its own vacancies, or elected by limited ballot, should be tolerated; no house-lists should be countenanced; those in power should have no should be filled by popular election, and, concern in re-elections; and all vacancies if possible, by the mode of GENERAL BALLOT, deciding by a simple majority, without limitations.

Merit and genius are antidotes to a close corporation. I was lately at one

of

of our universities, and heard of a young man of great promise in literature. Ah, said I, he will soon be promoted I suppose; he may calculate on being soon at the head of a college, and perhaps arrive early in life at the highest scholastic honours. You never were so deceived, replied an old M. A., he is already hated by several of the members of Golgotha; and, if he be not very circumspect in his conduct, they will contrive some means of dishonouring, instead of honouring, him. In short, he is the last man in the university to get on here, and he must be content with the slowest gradation of our honours, or exert his talents in some other sphere of action.

On another occasion I knew a learned Parson, who desired to become a member of a learned society, in London, (relative to whose pursuits he had written so much, and too well not to be viewed with jealousy by some of the members,) and, over a bottle of wine, he proposed to a fox-hunting squire, one of his parishioners, that they should both offer themselves as candidates, on the ground that one post-chaise would carry them to its meetings. The squire consented, though he scarcely knew the object of the society; but, as the rector told him, there was a good dinner annually, and some pleasant quarterly meetings, he consented; and accordingly their names were posted with others for the next ballot. The society was, like many others, founded on a principle of exclusion, and three black balls in ten disqualified; a mistaken principle, as a majority scarcely ought not to disqualify, and, of the two plans, I should prefer three in ten to elect, rather than to disqualify, if I wished a society to be great, perpetual, and useful. As nobody, therefore, knew the Squire, no one thought of opposing him; but two rival authors gloried in the opportunity of mortifying the Rector, and made a party to oppose him. In conse quence, on the day of election, twelve black balls were found of thirty-six who voted in the ballot for the erudite Rector, and not one for the Squire, who found. himself dubbed an FS, and his worthy neighbour rejected! The Squire, of course, had sense enough to despise a society possessed of a constitution which led it to make so ridiculous a decision; and, refusing to pay the fees, has ever since quizzed the Rector about it, and told the story of his transcendant and superior qualifications for an FS to some hundreds besides myself.

The history of the Royal Academy is a history of feuds and follies, occasioned by the same false principle of its constitution; and the famous Whig Club has sunk into contempt and utter insignificance, from the operation of the same cause.

The Bank of England, the India Company, and some other great bodies, are under the pernicious dominion of houselists; hence, are very imbecile, and lose much of their energy and respectability.

Even in the truly popular elections, in the wards of the city of London, the existing members of the common-council have the temerity to join their interests in opposing any new candidate; and they modestly distribute, at the place of election, printed lists, to be filled up by the electors, in which they take care to omit the names of any new candidates.

Of the wretched close bodies, called country corporations, no figure of speech sinks low enough to express the conse quences of this false principle of their constitution; and, for the honour of the law and the government, for their own glory, and the good of the people, their elections ought to be rendered open and popular; and, for the sake of their independence and good order, should be made by ballot, and decided by a majority.

Next to a parliamentary reform, and perhaps prior to it, this change in the constitution of corporations and pub lic bodies, ought to be effected by an intelligent people. The evil is, in some degree, the foundation of all others in the social arrangements of the United Kingdom; and all other necessary reforms would be a consequence of reinvigorating these organs of law and power, at present so many foci of cor ruption and bigotry.

March 6, 1811.

COMMON SENSE.

To the Editor of the Monthly Magazine.

SIR,

"given age will continue in being HE probability that a life of any to the end of any given term, being a fraction whose denominator is the num ber of persons living at the given age in any table of observations; and whose numerator is the number of persons living at an age older by the given term, than the given age; and in the case of joint lives, it being the product of the probabilities that each of the single lives shall continue in being to the end of the

instead of

tion

310

657

14.1552

years, as per

frac

30.0000

Thus every step, in true

knowledge, affording a glimpse of what lies next beyond it, in the scale of nature, the same unerring law evinces, the probability that both those persons shall live to the end of 30 years, is equal to

24.6580

given term," is a doctrine that was sug-
gested by Dr. Halley, adopted by Mr.
De Moivre, adhered to by Mr. Simpson,
confided in by Mr. Dodson, espoused by
Dr. Price, embraced by Mr. Morgan,
and assented to by a recent writer, Mr.
BAILY. The purport of this letter
is, to represent the fallacy of such a
doctrine. The definition of a fraction I
take to be this: the numerator denotes
the number or quantity, and the deno-
minator the distinguishing name of what
is numbered. The subject of the present
investigation being that of time, that is, years,
its component and fractional parts, it
follows, that the measure of the proba
bility of the duration of human life must
be expressed by a fraction, whose deno-
minator is a period of time, composed of
a specific number of years, and whose
numerator is a portion of such period,
composed of a less number of years, and
a fractional part of a year.

In the first example of Mr. BAILY's
first practical question, chapter xii,
"the probability that a per-
he asserts:
son, whose age is 20, shail attain to
the age of 50, or live 30 years, is,
according the observations of M. De
Parcieux, as given in table 3, equal to
581 And the probability that a person,

814

whose age is 40, shall attain to the age
of 70, or live 30 years, is, accord-
ing to the same observations, equal
But the probability that both

to

310

657

those persons shall live to the end of

30 years,

581

is equal to multiplied by

310 that is, equal to

657

:

814

180110

534798

By consulting Nature, in preference to my own imagination, or to any received doctrine, I find the probability_that_a person, whose age is 20, shall attain to the age of 50, or live 30 years, is, according to the observations of M. De Parcieux, as given in Mr. Baily's third table, years, instead of

equal to

21.3882
30.0000

25.6689

$0.0000

years, as per fraction

581
814

And the probability that a person, whose
age is 40, shall attain to the age of 70,
or live 30 years, is, according to the same
23.4056
years,

observations, equal to 30.0000

30.0000

years, instead of

[blocks in formation]

10.1034

30.0000 581X310

814X657

It appears to me, that the most es sential point of consideration attached to this subject has been wholly overlooked. by every author whose name I have mentioned; namely: to keep within the verge of probability. Had this been attended to, that anomalous mode of procedure of multiplying causes without necessity, as evidenced in Dr. Halley's sixth and seventh uses of his Breslau Table, could never have been introduced into the science; nor the fallacy of supposed of certain portions of time) was posing that a year (instead of being commade up of a continually fluctuating number of human beings, as taught by the same author, in the second use of the same table, and relied on, as well as

amplified, by every celebrated author on the subject since.

In his second example, page 356, Mr. Baily affirms: "The probability that a man, aged 46, shall attain to the age of 56, or live 10 years, is, according to the observati ons made in Sweden, as given in ta3096 And the pro

ble 14th, equal to 3991

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Now the probability that a man, aged 46, shall attain to the age of 56, or live 10 years, (as in the aforesaid example, 8 9219 instead of I find equal to 10.0000

years,

7.7574

10.0000

7.7574 10.0000

3096 years, as per fraction,

3991

this immutable law of Nature, through
every intermediate link of the chain, to
its arrival at the extremity of old age, I
find the probability that a person, whose
age
is 20, shall attain to the age of 95,
or live 75 years, is, according to the ob
servations of M. De Parcieux, as given in

8.5083

And the probability that a woman, aged
40, shall attain to the age of 50, or live
9.2425
10 years, I find equal to
years,
10.0000
instead of
years, as per frac- Mr. Baily's third Table, equal to
10.0000
4027
tion,
But the probability that
4733
both those persons shall live 10 years, I
years, instead of the same observations, equal to
10.0000

find equal to

6.6003

10.0000

9.0959

years, as per fractions,

3096×4027 12467592

[blocks in formation]

4010 3248 5132 4385

and

2448

3635

[ocr errors]

respectively. But the probability that all those lives shall continue so long, is equal to the product of the three fractions into each other: whence such probability will be $1883927040,

denoted by

81801385700

Now the probability that each of three lives, aged 20, 30, and 40, shall live 15 years, (according to the Northampton observations,) I find equal to 13.3644 13.0701 12.5836 - and 15.0000 15.0000 15.0000 respectively, instead of

11.1106
- and
15.0000

10.1018
15.0000

[blocks in formation]

years,

11.7205

15.0000

years respec.

4010 8248

"
5132 4335

respectively; but the pro

[blocks in formation]

bability that all those lives shall continue
so long, I find equal to
5.8466
instead of
15.0000
4010 X 3248 X 2448

years, as per

frac

[blocks in formation]

denoted by 0.0000, as necessarily result ing from the doctrine subscribed by the mathematical faithful, enrolled in their court of chancery. I will here make free and ask, whether the expression, "continue in being to the end of any given term," means any thing, or means nothing? Should it so happen as to mean something, the plain question is, what is that something that it does mean? Can the probable continuation of the existence of an assigned life be equal to itself, and unequal to itself, at one and the same time? The rule given in page 355, and the result in page 531, imply that it can. To carry this a little farther: let it be supposed possible to make the expression, "continue in being to the end of any given term,” to signify some real entity in nature, and that it may be attempted to form in the mind a clear and distinct conception of such entity; and that the immediate ob

ject so conceived be a specific period of time; then will the probability that a person, whose age is 15, shall continue in being to the end of a term of ten years, as deduced by the law of nature from the register of life and death (as given in page 550, table the third) be equal to a period of nine years, and the fraction .5837; the probability that the same person shall continue in being, to the By following up the inflexibility of end of a term of 20 years, will be equal

tions,

5132 X 4385 X 3635

$1883927040

81801385700

to

to a period of 18 years, and the fraction To the Editor of the Monthly Magazine. .2394. The probability that the same person shall continue in being to the

end of a term of thirty years, will be

equal to a period of 25 years, and the fraction .9894. The probability that the same person shall continue in being to the end of a term of forty years, will be equal to a period of 32 years, and the fraction .8101. The probability that the same person shall continue in being to the end of a term of fifty years, will be equal to a period of 38 years, and the fraction .2624. The probability that the same person shall continue in being to the end of a term of sixty years, will be equal to a period of 41 years, and the fraction .8909. The probability that the same person shall continue in being to the end of a term of sixty-five years, will be equal to a period of 42 years, and the fraction .8573. The probability that the same person shall continue in being to the end of a term of seventy years, will be equal to a period of 43 years, and the fraction .3278. And the probability that the same person shall continue in being to the end of a term of eighty years, will be equal to a period of 43 years, and the fraction .5094. But the probabilities that a person, whose age is 15, shall continue in being to the end of the said terms of ten, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty, sixty, sixty-five, seventy, and eighty, years, respectively, as deduced by the rule of faith, from the same register of life and death, will be equal to the respective periods of 9.1273, 16.3679, 22.0047, 24.8113, 23.2901, 14.9292, 9.0448, 3.9622, and 0.0000, years. Can the probability, therefore, of the continuance in being of such a life, to the extremity of old age, be, according to the result, in page 531, equal to something, and at the same time equal to nothing, according to the necessary consequence of Mr. Baily's rule, in page 355? Thus it is, that error always contradicts itself.

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Bings, and for many years slightly acquainted with the late Adelphi Barry, from whose writings I have received more solid information on the subject of the art he professed, than from any other modern author, not excepting Reynolds; was eager, after perusing a late account of his life and writings, to hear what were the sentiments on those valuable memoirs of the Edinburgh Review, so well versed in the art of bestowing profitable praise, or plausible condemnation.

EING always an admirer of painte

I

But, after wading through thirty-four pages of the vainest nonsense that ever was uttered on the subject of the art, to prove that Barry possessed, which we all know, a great deal of inspiring vanity; we come to charges, without proofs, of his misanthropy, uttered in the language he had enemies, produced in the most of the boldest malice, and a denial that inimical terms; and then we begin to see that Barry was not so far out in his suspicions, as this reviewer would have us believe; for no hyena of the desert, on the scent after a corpse long fallen in the sand, can be imagined to more closely track his prey, than this prowling assassin of departed genius has endeavoured to come up with, and mangle, the honest fame of a long-neglected, and late-rewarded, artist.

In his rage to delay the award of merit, which he now sees must, ere long, be allotted to the manes of this generousminded and high-spirited artist, he falls upon the whole tribe of men of genius, who have followed the profession time out of mind; and, not content with advising parents and friends to be cautious how they indulge its whisperings in young minds, he would allow no encouragement to be given to juvenile artists, but such as would enable them to live "comfortably by severe toil and study;" for Trusting that I have made the above the reviewer thinks that the stimulus of statement sufficiently plain to be tho- want, is no less necessary than the allureroughly understood, and thereby having ments of ambition, to procure success in succeeded in representing the fallacy of a this elegant accomplishment. doctrine so confidentially authorised, so mathematically tolerated, and so implicitly acquiesced in, during the last hundred years; it is only left me now to enquire, on which side of the question conviction preponderates?

NATHANIEL HAWES.

How he reconciles the living comfortably amid "the stimulant of want," I leave to his cold heart to explain, who perhaps thought they had in this way made Burns a good poet, by creating him an exciseman, as bird-fanciers put out the eyes of nightingales to make them sing.

Yet

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