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14.

As long as the cause exists which led to the preference of specie over paper,

To the Editor of the Monthly Magazine.

SIR,

F doctrine of probabilities, as geand to, the system of hoarding, specie Interally admitted, were a matter of

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will continue scarce, and will be likely to rise in nominal value, relatively to bank notes and paper currency: but as 'soon as paper can be converted on de. mand into specie, the preference in favour of specie will cease, the hoards will be opened, and specie will become as plentiful as heretofore.

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The power of Jews and moneydealers to speculate in the specie, and affect its value, will always be in proportion to the quantity in circulation; and their controul would cease, if the grounds, of the hoarding system were removed, and the Bank paid their notes in specie,, when the amount of the specie in circulation would of course exceed the compass of their capitals.

16.

The Bank of England being the fulcrum on which are balanced the fortunes of the country, it appears to be expedient, at this crisis, to place it under the vigilant controul of a committee of Parhament; and the private property of the, directors and of the Bank Company, the pledge of parliament, ought to be committed to the public as a security for the notes of the company now in circulation.

17.

or

In like manner, Country Bankers, who issue paper currency, ought to be called upon to give landed security for the . amount of their issues; and these counpanies, as well as the company of the Bank of England, ought to pay a halfrate of interest to the revenue, for the sums which, by the issue of paper currency, they now borrow of the public without interest.

18.

The alternative to prevent greater, perhaps irremediable evils, is to dissolve the existing spell by paying specie on denaud for bank notes.

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The conse-

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quent restoration of public confidence would occasion, specie to re-appear in quantities too great to be affected by the machinations of speculators. - Paper and specie would be again at par. The motive to hoard would be destroyed; alarms would be dissipated; and public prosperity would stand once more on a solid and permanent basis.

COMMON SENSE. Chelsea, April 12, 1811. MUNTELY MÁo. Nó, 21,

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mere speculation, and of no practical
utility, I should not trouble you with any
observations upon Mr. Nathaniel Hawes's
attack thereon, in your last number,
because the doctrine he attempts to es
tablish, appears to me to carry its own
refutation with it; but as the future
provision of thousands, as well as the
valuation of very extensive property, de-
pend much upon a right knowledge of
the subject, it is important that your
numerous readers (many of whom may
be unaccustomed to considerations of this
description) should not be induced to
suppose, that all which has hitherto been
done in this way, has been founded in
error; nor that, it was reserved for Mr.
Hawes to convict such men as Halley,
De Moivre, Price, Simpson, Dodson,
or Morgan, or Baily, of ignorance on a
subject, which, till now, they had the
reputation of treating with great ability.
On this account, and for this reason only,
am I induced to request your permission
to state the simple principles, which are
the foundation of the generally received
doctrine.

The probability of any event taking
place, is the ratio of the chances for its
happening to all the chances for its both
happening and failing. Thus the pro-
bability, that in throwing a halfpenny a
head shall fall upwards, is the ratio of
the chance for its happening, to the
chances for its both happening and fail-
ing, that is in the ratio of 1 to 2, and is
therefore properly expressed by the frac
tion, uuity in all cases denoting cer-
tainty, and therefore the sum of the
probabilities of any event both happen-
ing and failing, will always be equal to
unity, again, the chance of throwing a
particular number with a common die,
is likewise the ratio of the chance for its

happening, to the chances for its both
happening and failing; now as there is
but one way in which this can happen,
and five ways in which it may fail, it
will be in the ratio of 1 to 1+5 or 6,
and is properly expressed by the fraction

and if my receiving 1. depended
upon this contingency, the value of my
chance would evidently be one sixth part
of a pound, or 11. X by the fraction,
and for the same reason if there are, ac-
cording to Parcieux's Table of Observa
tions, 814 persons living at the age of 20,
2 U

and

1

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and only 581 at the age of 50, the probability of a person aged 20 living 30 years, or attaining the age of 50, is the ratio of the number living at this age, to this number and to the number who have died since the age of 20; that is in the ratio of 581 to 581+233, or 814, and, is therefore properly expressed by the fraction and for the same reason the probability that a person aged 40 shall live 30 years, is, by the same table,

581

814

310

found to be but the probability

657

both these persons shall live 30 years, is the product of the two probabilities or which may be thus

581 310 180110
·X·
814 657 534798'

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the probabi

657 814 534798 lity of both lives continuing 30 years, as before stated. I trust all this is so evident and so easy of comprehension, that no doubts of its truth can be entertained hy any of your readers excepting Mr. Hawes, from whom I have no such expectation, because that gentleman does not scruple to assert that the doctrine is founded in fallacy, and, instead of adopt ing it, he somewhat pompously tells us, "That by consulting nature in preferente to his own imagination, or to any received doctrine, he finds" (although by what method he does not condescend to inform us)" the probability, from the same Table of Observations of a person whose age is 20, attaining the age of 50, or living 30 years to be years, of a person aged 40 living 30 years,

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bability of their both continuing to live
30 years, to be greater than the probabi
lity of the latter of the 2 lives only
continuing that term, as he has also
done in his other case of 2 joint lives,
as well as in the case of 3 joint lives.
Now surely the absurdity of contending
that the probability of the happening of
two events, is greater than the probabi
lity that one only of the events shall take
place, is so great, that I trust none of
readers will feel disposed to have
your
any faith in the deductions which this
writer boasts of having obtained from
consulting of nature.

In the following example Mr. H. again objects to the doctrine, on the grounds of its producing absurd results, and says, that from the same table," he finds the probability of a life aged 20 attaining the age of 95 to be

40,2199

75,0000

years, of a life aged 30 attaining the same age 34,0586 years, and of a life aged 40 at

65,0000

taining the same age 27,4802

55,0000

years, but

persons

that the probability all these
shall continue for the terin of 55 years, is
39,6807
instead of the nonentity 0000,
55,0000

as necessarily resulting from the doctrine,
subscribed by the mathematical faithful,
enrolled in their court of chancery."
Now the absurdity which Mr. H. so tri-
umphantly exults in, recoils upon himself,
for in the table which he makes use of,
none of the persons attain a greater age
than 94 years, yet he makes the proba-
bility that all these lives shall continue
55 years (that is, that one of them shall
attain an age greater by a year than any
33,6807
in the table) to be
years, whilst
the result by the usual method, however
it may excite his ridicule, does most
truly represent the probability, or rather
denotes that no such probability can exist.

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For the Monthly Magazine. JOURNAL of a recent VOYAGE to CADIZ. HAVE heard a Spanish proverb, which significantly says of Cadiz, that it is "the heaven for women, the purgatory for men, and a hell for asses. There is a sort of gallantry in the first part, which is not perhaps altogether in applicable to the ladies: and with every partiality towards the fair sex on the other side the water, I confess that, for a time at least, I am apt in this instance to say that here is "the human face divine,"

The Spaniards do, however, admire the beautiful complexion of our fair countrywomen,

Whose every beauty, every grace, As shines the lily,

Or as the rose amid the morning dew,

Fresh from Aurora's hand, more sweetly glows."

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selves to the host, if it passes while they are in the streets, as I have before de scribed to you; did they wear the trapsparent robe of our fair ones, you may hence guess how soon its colour would be changed. On other occasions, such as going to the theatre and on visits, they dress much as in England, but perhaps with a little more decorum

They wear no hats or bonnets in the open air, but laced veils or a small piece of black casimir, called a mantilla, decorated with lace or velvet, which they negligently throw over the head and shoul ders; but this part of their dress is not intended to hide the face; on the contrary the graceful manner in which they continually dispose it, serves to heighten their charms. The fan is also a universal appendage to a lady's dress, she is scarcely ever seen without it when in a promenade or in the drawing room; in this warm climate it is rather indispensable for its utility, and it serves also as a graceful assistant to their expressive action in conversation. Dr. Johnson would not have been pleased with the attitudinising" of the Spaniards when they talk.

And it was but the other evening a gentleman in company, whose name was Flores, met an English lady just come from Malta, he admired her, for she was handsome, and pleasantly remarked to me that, although there were many flowers" by name in Spain, yet the English had the finest flowers by nature.

I will endeavour to give you a description of the Spanish ladies: they are for the most part not so tall as the English, slender in their form until they are about twenty-five or thirty years of age; they walk remarkably upright and gracefully, displaying at the same time a delicately small foot. In their manners they are very polite, agreeable, and chearful, without that tamt of reserve which some. tunes reduces conversation to thoughtful silence. They are fond of music and singing, and the English piano forte is in every family of fashion. A young lady was playing to me one morning some of their national airs and songs, but did not accompany the instrument with her voice. Ou asking her to sing, she pleasantly replied, "Yo no puedo cantar, pero puedo encantar," "I cannot sing, but I can enchant." I think they are fond of punning; but as you do not know much of the language, you will lose the expression of this, which I cannot well translate in its pleasing spirit.

The ladies and females of every description dress in black when they appear abroad; and a stranger on his first arrival, would be apt to conclude that the whole city was in mourning; there is a convenience in this arising from their re ligious ceremony of prostrating them

Lady W

is here assimilating herself with Spanish fashion, she has adopted the dress of the ladies, which is considered as a mark of respect; but in the playful use of the fan, she confesses her deficiency; she has translated Addison's description of the application of it by the ladies of different ages and inclinations, which the Spanish Belles exemplify and allow to be correct. You would hardly have supposed that the spectator was in Cadiz, but as I have it at hand, I will quote the passage which gives you the words of command, and I will refer you to the 102d paper of the work for the full explanation of them,

"Handle your fans,
Unfurl your fans,
Discharge your fans,
Ground your fans,
Recover your fans,
Flutter your fans,"

All these parts of the exercise a lady told me were severally correct, and she went through her past in the various uses of it, from youth to age, as perfectly as if Addison had been the drili-serjeant.

When a young lady walks unaccompanied by her friends, she is attended by an old female domestic, called a Duenna, who follows her at a respectful distance, either to mass or for a morning's prome nade.

The father confessor in some

cases

cases accompanies his female flock, and from the respect paid to the clergy, he is always the best protector. He is considered as one of the family, and at dinner and evening parties partakes of the most familiar attention.

There is an unrestrained freedom between the sexes in their association, but without levity or indecorum; and Spanish jealousy, which we have heard so much of, is now known only by name. The ladies and gentlemen select their own companions, enter among each other or not; and that mutual confidence, which is the basis of society, seems universally to exist.

The ladies marry early, but not so the men; and they verify the saying of John son, that "celibacy has no pleasures," and “a daughter begins to bloom before the mother can be content to fade."

The mode of visiting is less formal than with us; certain rules of ceremony are of course established, but without a cold formality. When you are introduced and receive an invitation to repeat the visit, it is to be understood that you will call afterward without requiring a particular repetition of it.

A family of fashion has an open night every week, this is called a Tertulla, when their friends are expected to call and partake of the evening's entertainment, and play a rubber, a game of chess, &c. &c. and as you are not required to remain the whole evening, you may quit the room sans ceremonie, and in this manner partake of the amusement of two or three Tertullas in the course of the evening.

The theatre being open every night, and as one only is in the place, it is usually well attended, more particularly on Sundays; and when it is announced that the Fandango, or Bolero, will be danced. These are national dances adapted to rus ic manners more than to polite education; for the figures of them, and the dress of the performers, partake so little of delicacy, as scarcely to allow their being adopted in private society in full perfection. The music is always accompanied by Castañetts, which are two circular pieces of ivory, or cocoa nut, about two inches diameter, fastened or suspended to each thumb with a string, and pressed smartly against each other by the tops of the fingers, producing a monotonous clatter in time with the music and the beat of the dancer's foot.

The dress of the men is in general much the same as it was in England fifty

years ago; they wear three-cornered hats, their hair powdered and tied in large knots, dangling on the shoulder, laced ruffles, large buckles, a full suit of velvet clothes; and those who belong to the public offices are often gaudily decked with gold and silver, embroidered lace, with a sword by their side. From the button boie is suspended the Cross of the Order of the Golden Fleece, which is very prevalent; and as the Spaniard is proud of any distinction, we see an end, less variety of badges, or ribbons of merit, worn by them. The cloak, or capota, is an indispensable article of dress, a mental servant will scarcely stir abroad, without it. It is worn in summer and in winter: first to keep off the scorching rays of the sun, if a large umbrella does' not answer sufficiently, and then to keep off the piercing air of the winter dews and fogs. This article is usually trimmed" with coloured velvet, which is shewn by dexterously throwing one corner of it over the left shoulder, so as to hang down on the back while the fold wraps round the chin, and the face is barely seen between this and their dirty whiskers and mustachio, still more obscured by the fumes of the segar.

Some young men who have visited England, or France, begin to adopt the more modern dress of those countries; the round hat in particular, and the pantaloon and half boots are introduced, and many receive their clothes ready made from a London taylor. But there is still a deficiency in the taste of wearing thein, and the greatest incongruity and mixture of colors between the coat and waistcoat and breeches. A light drab coat bedizened with lace, is perhaps worn on a black velvet waistcoat and blue breeches. The cloak is, however, a convenient arucle of dress, though it is getting much into disuse; it often serves to conceal a bad coat, as well as an unexpected instrument of death, and is made to answer the purpose of a shield by wrapping it round the arm in the attack with a sword.

The salutation of bowing, and the ceremony of shaking hands among men, is more common than in England; the lat ter is not permitted by the ladies but in particular or familiar cases, and one need always have the hand to the hat and wear only one glove; but the fraternal hug seems to be the excess of compliment when two friends meet on the occasion of returning from absence, taking leave,' &c. This is a ceremony which English-"

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