day but after they had passed the Niemen they became still more disorderly and dissolute. At Wilna, where the French head-quarters were, complaints arrived from all parts; and to put an end to this disgraceful conduct, some of the stragglers were shot, but this not having the desired effect, some moveable columns were formed, and sent in all directions to take the marauders, and the executions, which in the beginning were attended with some ceremony, became now so frequent, that the delinquents, without the least notice or ceremony, were shot as they were taken, but all the shooting had no effect, and at last, on account of the immense number confined, they were obliged to send them in large transports to the galleys, to prevent the liberated Poles witnessing the scenes of such disorganization. FACTS AND CALCULATIONS RESPECTING THE POPULATION AND TERRITORY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. SECTION I. Of the Population of the United States. IT is well known that about a century ago, the country which now composes the United States of America, contained but few thousand civilized inhabitants, and that now, the same country contains four or five millions. But the causes of this vast increase of numbers seem not to be equally well understood. It is believed that many persons still suppose the population of America to be chiefly indebted for its growth to emigrations from other countries; and that it must become stationary when they cease to take place. Some facts and calculations will be here set down, to ascertain the ratio of the natural increase of the inhabitants of America, and to shew that the great progress of wealth and population in that country, is chiefly derived from internal causes, and, of course, less liable to interruption from without. The highest estimate, that is recollected, of the number of inhabitants removing to America in any one year, supposes the number to be 10,000*. If the same number had removed every year since the first settlement of the country, it would make in the whole * Cooper's Inform. p. about 1,600,000. But it is to be remarked that this estimate was made for a period when emigrations were unusually numerous, that during the many years of war which have taken place they have been very few, and that in former years, when the number of emigrants was complained of as an evil, it was not reckoned so high*. We may, therefore, suppose that 5000 persons per annum, is a liberal allowance for the average number of persons removing to America since its first settlement. This, in the year 1790, would amount to 800,000 persons. At the end of 1790, and beginning of 1791, there were enume rated in the General Census, the number of 3,993,412 † inhabitants. As some places were not enumerated at all, and from others no return was made, there can be little doubt, but the actual number then, was something more than 4,000,000. Supposing them to have increased, so as to double their numbers once in twenty years, then, in the several preceding periods of twenty years, since the year 1630, the numbers would stand thus: but as this last date reaches back to the infancy of the first settlements in North America, it can hardly be supposed that they contained so many as 15,000 inhabitants. It follows, therefore, that they must have doubled their numbers oftener than once in twenty years that is, that they must have increased faster than at the rate of 5 per cent. compounding the increase with the principal at the end of every twenty years., To determine how far this ratio of increase is justified by other facts, some pains have been taken to ascertain, and compare the number of inhabitants at four different periods, viz. 1750, 1774, 1782, and 1791: the following estimate has been formed of those numbers about the year 1750. In 1751, Massachussets contained Connecticut § Rhode Island 200,000 100,000 See the Census of 1791. * Douglas's Summary, Vol. II. p. 326. Doug. Sum. Vol. II. p. 180.—Smith's Hist. of New York, p. 225, § Morse's Geog. says, that in 1748 Rhode Island contained 34,128. By a conjectural proportion, therefore, the number of Taxables in 1791, must have been about 86,000. Then as 86,000 is to 434,373, (the number of inhabitants in 1791) so is 31,667 to 159,945, the number of 1760, which subtracted from the Census of 1791, gives an increase of 274,428 for thirty years, of which one third part, or 91,379, is the mean increase for ten years; but supposing the increase for the ten years previous to 1760, to have been but 70,000, there will remain for the whole number in 1750 Delaware. Suppose in the same proportion to its present numbers as Pennsylvania .............. § 1751 or 1752 in Maryland the Taxables were ....... 89,945 12,224 40,000 Taxables are understood to be all white men above 16 years of age, and all black persons from 16 to 60-say then that to every 100 white males above 16 there are 100 ditto below ditto, and 200 white females of all ages 200 blacks from 16 to 60, and 200 of all other ages. Total 800, of which 300 are Taxables, then as 300 is to 800 so is 40,000 to ... 106,666 80,000 10,000 1,179,259 4,000,000 South Carolina-suppose in the same ratio About 1750 Total of inhabitants in the Thirteen Colonies............. 1790 Whole number in the Thirteen States being about 3,4-10 time the number of 1750. If this increase be computed in the manner of simple interest, it affords a ratio of 5,98, or very nearly six per cent. or in the manner of compound interest of between 3 and 34 per cent. Any number increased in the compound ratio of 3 per cent. per annum is doubled in about twenty-three years and a half, and at 3 per cent. in about twenty years; that is, it is equal to 5 per cent. simple increase for the same period. The next period which will be adverted to, is the year 1774. An able and ingenious author t, who was very thoroughly conversant in Colonial Affairs, supposes, that at that time, the whole number of Colonists could not exceed 2,141,307. The difference between this number and that of 1750 gives a compound increase of hardly 3 per cent.; while the subsequent ratio, up to 1790, is more than 4 per cent. per annum. These different rates of increase, + Pownal's Memorial, p. 62. * Jefferson's Notes, p. 122. while they confirm the general principles here contended for, may lead to a suspicion that Governor Pownal's calculation is too low, or what perhaps is more probable, that the foregoing estimate for 1750 is somewhat too high. In 1782 a return was made to Congress of the inhabi tants in the several States, by which there appeared to be 2,389,300 This return was then believed to be accurate, for it was made the rule for the assessment of public burthens among the States.-But, in 1784, the accuracy of it was attacked by Lord Sheffield *, who affirmed it was too great; if it was in fact as much too great as he supposed, then the increase of numbers from that time to 1790 must have exceeded all credibility. But allowing it to have been accurate, the difference between the number of 1790 4,000,000 And this number of.......... Is ...... From this, deduct for Emigrants, viz. ........1782 2,389,300 ...... 1,610,700 10,000 emigrants per ann. for 9 years ....... 90,000 Increase of ditto at 5 per cent. for 4 years... 20,250 110,250 ........ 1,500,450 Natural increase in nine years......................... which calculated upon the number of inhabitants returned in 1782 gives the astonishing natural increase of 6,97, or very nearly 7 per cent. per annum. From these statements, compared with each other, it appears that in the year 1790 the actual increase of inhabitants in the United States, beyond the number ever imported, must have been 3,200,000, or after the most liberal allowances, at least 3,000,000. That the whole rate of increase upon the numbers at any given period, has been more than 5 per cent. and deducting for emigrations, that it has been about equal to 5 per cent .for any twenty years successively, or 3 per cent, compound increase for any period that has yet elapsed. But it may be objected, that no inference as to the future population of America can be derived from these facts; because as the country becomes more thickly settled, the increase will be slower, We have an opportunity of examining what weight the objection. possesses. The eastern States are the most thickly inhabited. The greater * Observations, &c. p. 239. |