CHAPTER XII. Of our rational expectations respecting the future improvement of Society. IN taking a general and concluding view of our rational expectations respecting the mitiga. tion of the evils arising from the principle of population, it may be observed, that though the increase of population.in a geometrical ratio be incontrovertible, and the period of doubling, when unchecked, has been uniformly stated in this work, rather below than above the truth; yet there are some natural consequences of the progress of society and civilization, which necessarily repress its full effects. These are, more particularly, great towns and manufactures, in which we can scarcely hope, and certainly not expect to see any very material change. It is undoubtedly our du-ty, and in every point of view highly desirable, to make towns and manufacturing employments as little injurious as possible to the duration of human life; but, after all our efforts, it is probable Of our rational expectations that they will always remain less healthy than country situations and country employments; and consequently operating as positive checks, will diminish in some degree the necessity of the preventive check. In every old state it is observed, that a considerable number of grown up people remain for a time unmarried. The duty of practising the common and acknowledged rules of morality during this period, has never been controverted in theory, however it may have been opposed in practice. This branch of the duty of moral restraint has scarcely been touched by the reasonings of this work. It rests on the same foundation as before, neither stronger nor weaker. And knowing how incompletely this duty has hitherto been fulfilled, it would certainly be visionary to expect any very material change for the better, in fu ture. The part which has been affected by the reasonings of this work is not therefore, that which relates to our conduct during the period of celibacy, but to the duty of extending this period till we have a prospect of being able to maintain our children. And it is by no means visionary to in respecting future improvement. dulge a hope of some favorable change in this respect; because it is found by experience, that the prevalence of this kind of prudential restraint is extremely different in different countries, and in the same countries at different periods. It cannot be doubted, that throughout Europe in general, and most particularly in the northern states, a decided change has taken place in the operation of this prudential restraint, since the prevalence of those warlike and enterprising habits which destroyed so many people. In later times the gradual diminution and almost total extinction of the plagues which so frequently visited Europe in the seventeenth and the beginning of the eighteenth centuries, produced a change of the same kind. And in this country it is not to be doubted that the proportion of marriages has become smaller since the improvement of our towns, the less frequent returns of epidemics, and the adoption of habits of greater cleanliness. During the late scarcities it appears that the number of marriages diminished; and the same motives which prevented many people from marrying during such a period, would operate precisely in the same way, if, in future, the additional number of children reared vol. ii. rrr Of our rational expectations to manhood from the introduction of the cow-pox, were to be such as to crowd all employments, lower the price of labor, and make it more difficult to support a family. Universally, the practice of mankind on the subject of marriage has been much superior to their theories; and however frequent may have been the declamations on the duty of entering into this state, and the advantage of early unions to prevent vice, each individual has practically found it necessary to consider of the means of supporting a family, before he ventured to take so important a step. That great vis medicatrix reipublicæ, the desire of bettering our condition, and the fear of making it worse, has been constantly in action, and has been constantly directing people into the right road in spite of all the declamations which tended to lead them aside. Owing to this powerful spring of health in every state, which is nothing more than an inference from the general course of the laws of nature irresistibly forced on each man's attention, the prudential check to marriage has increased in Europe; and it cannot be unreasonable to conclude that it will still make further advances. If this take place, without any marked respecting future improvement. and decided increase of a vicious intercourse with the sex, the happiness of society will evidently be promoted by it; and with regard to the danger of such increase, it is consolatory to remark, that those countries in Europe where marriages are the least frequent, are by no means particularly distinguished by vices of this kind. It has appeared that Norway, Switzerland, England, and Scotland, are above all the rest in the prevalence of the preventive check; and though I do not mean to insist particularly on the virtuous habits of these countries, yet I think that no person would select them as the countries most marked for profligacy of manners. Indeed, from the little that I know of the continent, I should have been inclined to select them as most distinguished for contrary habits, and as rather above than below their neighbors in the chastity of their women, and consequently in the virtuous habits of their men. Experience therefore seems to teach us, that it is possible for moral and physical causes to counteract the effects that might at first be expected from an increase of the check to marriage; but allowing all the weight to these effects which is in any degree probable, it may be safely asserted, that the |